8/26/2023 0 Comments Data dredging p-hackingGrenades might lead to fruitful paths for future research, but you can't trust data gathered that way. Data mining, fishing expeditions and data dredging are other descriptors that had been applied to the act of p-hacking. Maybe you only killed the fish that were coming up for air at the time, and most of the population was deep under water. Data dredging (also known as data snooping or p-hacking) 1 a is the misuse of data analysis to find patterns in data that can be presented as statistically significant, thus dramatically increasing and understating the risk of false positives. Maybe the fish were moving from one favorite spot to another when you bombed them. Theoretical framework The statistical framework of this paper is frequentist: we consider the statistical properties of hypothesis tests under hypothetical replications of the data. You still need to go drop a line and test your hypothesis. a data analysis whose details are highly contingent on data, without the researcher performing any conscious procedure of shing or examining multiple p-values. If nobody knows anything about where to find fish, a grenade might be in order, but you cannot stop there or draw any conclusions about the habits of fish from the results. However, his after-the-fact explanation of why they were where they were should be taken with a grain of salt, and he sure as hell had better not pretend he didn't use a grenade. ![]() If you get some fish, that demonstrates that he knows a thing or two about fishing. Guide 1 is testing a specific, pointed hypothesis. ![]() He rows the boat over to where the big ones floated to the surface, explaining how he knew exactly where the big ones were the whole time. You drop your line there, and sure enough, you catch big fish.įishing guide number 2 throws a hand grenade into the lake and kills everything. ![]() Fishing guide number 1 tells you that based on the depth, currents, and water temperature, we should expect to find the big fish at this spot if you use this bait. P values are just mathematical convention, and they don't mean much without some sort of prior plausibility.
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